100% Chance This May Be Right

There are a few jobs I'm glad I don't have. Even though there is a need (I respect you guys!), I couldn't be a roadkill cleaner (see picture). I have no desire to be the guy in the batting cage-turned golf cart thing that collects balls at the driving range (don't know about you, but he's always my target practice). Finally, I'm glad I'm not a seasonal hurricane forecaster. Yup, the guys that announce just before the hurricane season how "quiet" or "bad" it's going to be from June through November in the Atlantic basin. Let's review, shall we...

2005: Hurricane prediction well below what occurred. 28 named storms, so many the Greek alphabet was used. Storms like Katrina, Rita and Wilma hit the U.S.
2006: Following the massive devastation and loss of life from the '05 season, seasonal forecasters predicted "higher-than-average" activity. It didn't happen.
2007: Same thing. 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes predicted. We had 14 named storms, and 6 hurricanes. Humberto was really the only storm to affect the U.S.

PLEASE don't get me wrong. I couldn't be a seasonal hurricane forecaster, that's why I'm in the broadcasting end of meteorology. I just don't think the "science" is there yet to accurately predict what exactly a hurricane season will be like. Is there value in these forecasts? - YES! But, the public is already questioning the last three "botched" years of hurricane forecasts. Blogs on Tuesday were filled with comments like: "These forecasts are a joke!", "...why do we even have weather reports!?", and my favorite, "The winning numbers for Wednesday's Florida Lottery drawing are: 3-14-28-35-41-50." When the public starts to form an opinion as strongly as this, it'll take a few years of near 100% accuracy to change their minds. Even Max Mayfield, former director of the National Hurricane Center in Miami said, "The seasonal hurricane forecasters certainly have a lot of explaining to do."

Again, don't get me wrong, I have a lot of respect for these folks who dish out these forecasts, but it's like me telling you how much snow we're going to get between now and spring within two-inches. I could guess, but I'd probably be wrong, and you'd probably hold me to my forecast!

Hurricane season ends Friday. Hope your week is going well! --Jay